Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
